An agent-based model of burglary in Leeds

The candidate confirms that the work submitted is their own and the appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others. I understand that failure to attribute material which is obtained from another source may be considered as plagiarism. Summary Occurrences of crime are complex phenomenon. They are the result of a vast number of interrelated factors which can include demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, cultural backgrounds, the presence of security measures, effects of the physical environment and relevant crime prevention techniques. Traditionally, crime occurrences have been modelled by the statistical technique of logistic regression. Although they have been used to demonstrate links between crime occurrences and social factors they cannot provide any predictive analyses. More recently, computer simulations of crime have been developed which provide the necessary predictive element, but these models face difficulties with regards to integrating behavioural information. Agent-based modelling is a new modelling paradigm and has spurred a considerable amount of interest. An agent is an independent component of a system which can interact with other agents and its environment in order to achieve goals. In this manner, large systems of agents can be created to mimic real environments. Most importantly, the agents can have behavioural information built in to determine how they should achieve their goals. An accurate agent-based model which incorporates human behavioural factors as well as detailed environmental components could have a number of uses with relevance to crime modelling. Not only could it be used to analyse the reasons offenders travel to certain areas (as current models do) but also provide " what if " analyses. These could include considerations such as the effect that new environmental developments or crime reduction initiatives might have on a local area before their implementation. This will have a significant impact on local councils, town planners and the police. This project will outline the creation of an agent-based model which predicts where burglars in Leeds will travel to in order to commit a crime. It will also analyse how useful agent-based modelling is as a technique for this type of analysis. i Acknowledgements I'd like to than Tony, my supervisor, for all his help throughout the project and for teaching me basic grammar! I'd also like to thank Andy and everyone else in Geography whose input has been invaluable. And a big thank you to Megan whose still putting up with …